Linklog 6

It’s not the incentives. Every claim that “the incentives” support or deter certain kinds of behavior is also a statement about what kinds of external signals the claimant views as rewards or penalties. OP

How accurate are learning curves? My current perhaps-crank theory is that learning curves are mostly about the people in the industry, and so their variability is largely about relevant labor market conditions. OP

Markets for intelligence. “Fifth, we estimate preliminary short-run price elasticities just above one, suggesting limited scope for Jevons-Paradox effects.” I wonder whether the same holds for personal usage of companion chatbots. I’d expect not, they seem stickier, but it’s an empirical question. OP